Information Warfare

The European External Action Service (EEAS) has released its third report on foreign information mani-pulation and interference (FIMI) threats. Like previous reports, the latest iteration of the report is based on carefully collected data of observed FIMI activity, to identify and analyse the key trends in 2024. Building on the guidance provided by last year’s report on moving toward collective response, the 3rd report on FIMI threats introduces a novel element to analyse foreign information manipulation and interference – the FIMI Exposure Matrix, which was applied to analyse a sample of 505 FIMI incidents involving some 38 000 channels engaged in information manipulation. EU H R Kaja Kallas presented the report and stated clearly that the threat of FIMI is global and must not be underestimated, because ‘the aim [of FIMI] is to destabilise our societies, damage our democracies, drive wedges between us and our partners and undermine the EU’s global standing.’

« A drug addict, a dictator and a puppet, oligarch, collector of Nazi memorabilia and a Nazi himself, an agent of MI6 and perhaps the CIA », according to the Kremlin: These are not colourful descriptions of a Bond character, but the picture of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy painted by Russian state and pro-Kremlin outlets. It is one of the most prominent strands within the Kremlin’s disinformation narra-tives: smear Ukraine’s democratic leaders to delegitimise its statehood and the very existence of a free Ukraine. And in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, such slander takes on a whole new meaning. At the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Ukrainian people rallied around their elected leader. President Zelenskyy has become not only a natural interlocutor for Ukraine’s friends and allies around the world, but also a symbol of Ukrainian resistance. Breaking it has been the focus of Russian information warfare in order to demoralise, destabilise and divide Ukraine and its allies.

Lately, pro-Kremlin information manipulators have been putting on a show of a twisted victory dance over Russia’s war against Ukraine. Its central element is the myth of Russian military invincibility. The Kremlin’s flirtation with the idea of Russia’s invincibility started way before the recent heated Munich Security Conference. In fact, Moscow has been systematically deploying this idea as a tool of influence, blackmail and dissuasion all throughout Russia’s war against Ukraine. It may well be that the policy-makers in the Kremlin actually believe the narrative of Russia’s inevitable victory that their own propagandists have developed. How else could one explain the arrogant tone struck by the Kremlin’s disinformation superspreader-cum-news agency, state-run RIA Novosti, public-ly celebrating victory on day three of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine?

Russian state-controlled and pro-Kremlin outlets try to divide opponents by spreading rumours, lies, and slander while engaging troll factories, AI bots, and the like. This type of behaviour is consistent with classic psychological warfare operations. These efforts are taking up more space in the information landscape as they are made cheaper by AI and social media platforms designed to keep people glued to the screen. For the untrained eye, some Kremlin narratives could be mistaken as just ‘interesting news’ or ‘a fresh and alternative opinion’. Messages often focus on sowing division in societies between governments and people or pitting groups inside countries against each other.

Russia has not accepted the U.S. proposal for ceasefire in Ukraine – despite Putin’s deceptive words to the opposite.
The U.S. proposal for a 30 days ceasefire in Russia’s war against Ukraine was accepted by Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy. Then it got the usual treatment in Moscow: a cacophony of allusions and contra-dicting views were voiced by different state repre-sentatives to create uncertainty and obfuscate Russia’s intentions. Then, amidst this uncertainty rife with anticipation, Putin himself chimed in only after a few days of deliberate delay. Unsurprisingly, his words were opaque and non-committal, expressing seeming ‘openness to the idea’ but reserving space for eventual denial by alluding to unspecified ‘Russia’s demands’. Another sign of an attempt to hedge their bets – Putin’s comments came not in direct response to the US proposal, but were rather wrapped into the press conference with Belarus dictator Lukashenka.

Pro-Kremlin outlets focus on the imminent German Bundestag elections, with narratives stoking tension and division in society. Pro-Kremlin outlets are focusing their attentions on the imminent German Bundestag elections, with narratives stoking tension and division in society. The patterns we highlighted in our recent article continue, and remind us of what we saw at the time of the Olympic Games and the European Parliament elections, tactics such as Doppelganger campaigns, hijacking credibility from reputable outlets, and smearing prominent political leaders with fake videos, social media posts, and other false material.

The colder it gets, the more desperate pro-Kremlin disinformation becomes. This winter, the usual scare stories about Europe’s supposed mortal dependence on Russian gas are back, along with new attempts to weaponise climate change. With seasonal regularity, pro-Kremlin outlets bombard their audiences with claims that without Russian oil and gas, Europeans will freeze in winter. Yet, just as the spring sun thaws the frost, Europe’s ability to manage without Russian fossil fuels melts these claims into irrelevance.

Russian state-run news agency RIA has increased the use of AI-generated images to dehumanise Ukrainians by showing them as vile vermin deserving extermination. Opinion articles and editorial commentaries on RIA Novosti often border on obvious propaganda. The Russian state-owned news agency uses them to try to convince Russians that countless enemies surround the Motherland, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is justified, and a glorious future awaits the Russian people.

Putin is angling for another high-profile sit-down with Trump, but this time, the location and stakes are different. Behind the diplomatic bravado, we see a familiar playbook of strategic flattery, poorly veiled ultimatums, and lies after lies. The Kremlin is practically giddy with anticipation about a possible summit between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. But this time, don’t expect the meeting to be held in Helsinki. Instead, Russia is reportedly eyeing Saudi Arabia or the UAE as potential locations. Senior Russian officials have already made visits to these countries, laying the groundwork. In the lead-up to a potential summit, Putin has gone out of his way to shower the American president with praise.

Pro-Kremlin outlets try to manipulate the information landscape ahead of the German federal election with the usual deceptive stories such as ‘the country is collapsing’, ‘elites do not care’ and ‘just one party can prevent chaos and ruin’. Ahead of the German federal elections later this month, pro-Kremlin outlets employ the usual manipulative narratives including tropes like ‘Germany is facing economic and social ruin’, ‘Germans are desperate for change’ and ‘only parties that promise such change will do well’. The messaging is, as always, simple. Built around elements which would resonate with some people, but embellished with falsities and based on the same few key narratives the Kremlin has peddled for years: Elites vs People, Lost Sovereignty, Threatened Values, Imminent Collapse. Incidentally, the Kremlin’s information manipulation operation sought to employ much of the same playbook ahead of the European elections in June 2024.