Europe-United States: The Great Rupture

Introduction

In one year, Donald Trump has succeeded where European federalists have failed for 70 years: unifying Europe. This irony of history alone sums up the glacial climate of this January 2026. The publication yesterday morning of the Eurobazooka poll only confirms “weak signals” that have become deafening. In Davos, recent speeches by Mark Carney, Emmanuel Macron, and Volodymyr Zelensky have already shown that the cup was full: the time has come to set the record straight.

We are witnessing a historic shift that consecrates the definitive rupture of the transatlantic link.

But this anger of public opinion did not come out of nowhere. It is the direct and rational response to the publication, last week, of the Pentagon’s new “National Defense Strategy” (NDS 2026). This doctrinal document, which establishes America’s priorities for 2026-2030, acted as a cold shower in chancelleries: for the first time, Europe is no longer qualified as a “vital partner,” but implicitly as a periphery to be exploited.

By enacting the unilateral securing of resources (Greenland) as a national security priority superior to NATO obligations, Washington has torn up the contract of trust. Today’s poll proves that European peoples have read the message loud and clear: they are no longer protected, they are targeted.

This conviction of having become a target is not a matter of collective paranoia. It is the lucid reading of the new American security architecture. To understand the violence of the Eurobazooka poll figures, one must superimpose them on the National Defense Strategy published by what has reclaimed its historic name of “Department of War”.

This military document is the operational, brutal, and unfiltered translation of the White House’s vision. It enacts major ruptures that validate the worst fears of Europeans:

1. The Doctrine of “Necessary Predation”: The Pentagon establishes in black and white that access to “Key Terrain” such as Greenland and the Panama Canal is an absolute priority. Securing Greenland by the US Army is not an option, but an imperative to guarantee American military and commercial access. This validates the 66% of Europeans who speak of “recolonization.”
2. The End of the “Umbrella” for Continental Europe: The Pentagon announces that allies must assume “primary responsibility” for their conventional defense. US troops are no longer there to guarantee unconditional European security, but to provide “critical but limited” support, with the main effort redirected toward Homeland Defense.
3. The Arctic as a New Center of Gravity: The report integrates the “Trump Corollary” into the Monroe Doctrine, asserting American military dominance over the Western Hemisphere to prevent any adverse influence. By militarizing this zone, Washington treats these territories as an exclusive sphere of influence.

It is this dual reading—the political vision of the White House coupled with the military planning of the Pentagon—that caused the electroshock. Europeans have understood that “Make America Great Again” now requires weakening their own strategic position.

The latest Eurobazooka/Cluster 17 poll brutally testifies to the realization by Europeans and their Allies (Canada, Australia) of a dynamic that is as new as it is unprecedented.

Here is the numerical radiography of this rupture, which leaves no room for ambiguity:

• 51% of Europeans now qualify Donald Trump as an enemy, and 44% as a dictator.
• 81% would equate an American intervention in Greenland to an act of war.
• 63% support the sending of European troops to defend the island (a historic first).
• 21% deem a direct war with the USA probable—a perceived threat level higher than that of China (11%) or Iran (18%).
• Nearly 2/3 describe American foreign policy as an enterprise of “recolonization.”
• 56% blame the passivity of their leaders regarding the coup in Venezuela.
• Alignment collapses: frontal opposition (46%) now exceeds the will to compromise.

Consequently, the detailed analysis of these figures takes on a dizzying dimension: this is not a mood swing, it is an entry into resistance.

I. The Democratic Electroshock: Data Analysis

The results of this January 2026 do not mark a simple evolution, but a breaking of the dam. The Atlanticist “superego,” which forbade Europeans from thinking against the United States, has shattered.

1. The Total Desacralization of the Ally The figure with the heaviest consequences is undoubtedly this one: 51% of Europeans now qualify Donald Trump as an enemy. For the first time since 1944, America is no longer predominantly perceived as a protector, but as an existential threat. This shift is moral as much as geopolitical. By qualifying the American president as a “dictator” (44%) or attributing “authoritarian tendencies” to him (44%), European citizens delegitimize the alliance. One does not ally with what one reproves. The inversion of values is total: in the eyes of public opinion, Washington has become a source of instability.

2. Greenland: The Red Line of “European Patriotism” The Pentagon report on resource security found a scathing response in public opinion. 63% of respondents declare themselves in favor of sending troops to Greenland. This is a historic figure for a Europe often described as a pacifist “Venus.” It means that Europeans now consider the territory of the Union (and that of its associates like Denmark) as an inviolable sanctuary. Even more serious for the future of NATO: 81% would consider an American military intervention on the island as an “act of war.”

3. The Compensation Mechanism: From Venezuela to the Arctic There is a direct causal link between the humiliation felt during the Venezuelan affair and the firmness displayed regarding Greenland. With 56% dissatisfied with the soft reaction of European authorities to the abduction of Maduro (deemed illegal by 63%), public opinion has developed a complex of powerlessness that it refuses to relive. The hardening on the Greenland dossier is a compensation mechanism: what Europe did not dare to do in Caracas, it demands to do in Nuuk.

4. The Collapse of the “Compromise” Party Finally, the internal political dynamic is clear. The demand for alignment with Washington has collapsed. While the country seems divided between compromise (44%) and opposition (46%), the dynamic described by Quentin Dickinson is unmistakable: “common sense” is sliding toward confrontation. Proponents of negotiation are now perceived as the naive ones of yesterday, or even as accomplices to the predation in progress.

II. Prospective: Towards Collision (Spring 2026)

If European public opinion is boiling over, it is because it has intuitively grasped what military experts read in the new American strategy: the mechanics of a confrontation are now engaged. It is no longer a hypothesis; it is a ballistic certainty.

Indeed, two irreconcilable doctrines are rushing toward each other:

1. The American Side: The “Trump Corollary” The Department of War document leaves no room for interpretation. It formalizes the “Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine”. This doctrine asserts that the United States must restore its military domination in the Western Hemisphere and explicitly cites Greenland as terrain to which access must be guaranteed. For Washington, securing Nuuk is a matter of national defense, validated by an approach of “hardnosed realism”.
2. The European Side: The Democratic “Red Line” Faced with this de facto desire for annexation, the Eurobazooka poll acts as a lock. With 81% of Europeans considering a US intervention as an act of war, no European leader could back down without committing political suicide.

Scenarios for the coming weeks:

• The Nuuk Incident (February 2026): In application of the NDS 2026, the US Navy could deploy assets to “secure access” to Greenlandic ports. This deployment, justified by Washington as a protective measure, will be perceived by Europe as the dreaded act of “recolonization.”
• The End of NATO (March 2026): The American demand that allies now spend 5% of their GDP on defense (including 1.5% for broader security spending) will finish breaking the Alliance. Faced with the European refusal to pay for protection that has become a threat, NATO will enter a state of brain death.
• The Face-off (April 2026): If Europe sends troops to Greenland (supported by 63% of the population), we will witness a situation unseen for two centuries: European and American forces facing each other, weapons at the ready, in an icy theater.

III. Conclusion & Proposal: The New Narrative

We must stop telling ourselves stories. The brutality of the National Defense Strategy 2026 does not emerge from the void. It is the explicit implementation of what has always been the unthought element of American power.

Let us remember: thirty years ago, a confidential executive order signed by Bill Clinton already stated that it was “excluded for the United States to be dependent” regarding 21 critical technologies, coldly specifying that “everything must be done to remedy this, including war if necessary.” What was then a state secret is today a public doctrine. America is not looking for partners; it is looking for vassals or targets.

Europeans must acknowledge this reality without trembling. Courageous decisions must be made, now. This is no longer a crisis; it is a divorce.

And it is here, in the heart of this storm, that an unexpected path emerges. As someone once said: “I had a dream last night.”

I saw a President Macron who, although appearing to embody the supreme magistracy only symbolically on the domestic front, suddenly regained in Europe the correctness of tone that makes History. I saw a man becoming audible to the French again precisely because he ceased speaking to them of management to speak to them of destiny.

Rediscovering a Gaullian accent, President Macron drew, in his turn, the conclusions that General de Gaulle and François Mitterrand had drawn before him.

Here is the speech he delivered, and which changed everything:

Address by the President of the Republic Title: “We Are Not a Periphery”

“Frenchwomen, Frenchmen, My fellow Europeans,

I have read, like you, the document published by what now calls itself the ‘Department of War’ in Washington. Words have meaning. One does not do ‘defense’ with friends; one makes ‘war’ on enemies.

I have heard, above all, your anger expressed this morning by this historic poll.

Donald Trump’s America has unilaterally decided to change the rules. It has decided that Greenland, an associated European land, was merely ‘key terrain’ to be secured for its own interests. It has decided that our alliances were valid only if we paid an exorbitant tribute of 5% of our wealth. It has decided that Europe was prey.

It asks us to choose between submission and rupture. I tell you tonight, with the gravity of decisive moments: Europe will not submit.

We are not anyone’s ‘strategic periphery.’ We are not a buffer zone between empires. We are a free power.

Thirty years ago, America already wrote in secret that it would wage war to never be dependent. Today, Europe responds publicly that it is ready to defend itself to remain independent.

Since Washington invokes its Monroe Doctrine to arrogate rights over our neighborhood, we invoke our inalienable right to defend our own soil. In response to your legitimate demand for firmness, I announce the immediate deployment of a European Naval Protection Force in the waters of the High North.

This force is directed against no one. It is here to say one simple thing: Europe protects itself.

The time of innocence is over. The time of power begins. Long live the Republic, and long live sovereign Europe.”